Seismic Risk and Principles of Seismic Zoning (Seismic Design Decision Analysis)

摘要

A short, nonmathematical account of basic methods of estimating seismic risk is given. Some preliminary considerations about the use of seismic risk estimates for the most rational seismic zoning and for optimization of a complex of antiseismic measures are presented. To measure seismic risk, it is first necessary to establish models for the following factors: probable number of earthquakes in a given period of time as a function of their energy and coordinates of their centers; intensity of shaking at various points on the earth's surface for each earthquake as a function of their energy and coordinates of their centers; and, the damage caused by shaking of one or another intensity at each point of the object. The effectiveness of antiseismic measures is discussed and a plan for regulating a whole complex of antiseismic measures is outlined. It is felt that the realization of this plan would lead to an essential increase in the population's safety and, also would reduce economic losses from earthquakes.