Optimal Irrigation Management Strategy Under Hydrologic and Irrigation Efficiency Uncertainty Regimes.

摘要

Optimization of the operation and management of an irrigation system is dependent on variability of the hydrologic phenomenon and variability in the various uncertainties involved in irrigation water use that are often lumped as irrigation efficiency. A Bayesian decision theory was developed to incorporate the uncertainties of hydrologic phenomenon and irrigation efficiency considering both time and space variation. Major inputs to the model included irrigation diversions, probalistic irrigation efficiencies,three crop response functions,utility functions,irrigation production cost and crop price functions,consumptive use data and seasonal crop yield coefficients. The system modeled was an unimproved gravity irrigation system. The model was tested on an irrigation district located in Blaine County,Idaho. Results indicated that costs for irrigation water use and crop production costs as input functions were not as critical in influencing optimum results as the probablistic hydrologic and irrigation efficiency parameters.