Conceptual Approach to the Analysis of External Debt of the Developing Countries

摘要

This paper postulates that debt crises might result either from solvency problems or liquidity problems. The various statistical models used to predict or forecast when individual countries are likely to have a debt crisis are found to ignore the distinction between solvency-type crises and liquidity-crises. An appendix summarizes some of these models and their empirical results. (Copyright (c) The World Bank 1980.)