Lessons for States and Cities: A Handbook for Analyses of the Impacts of New Developments on Older Commercial Areas

摘要

This report is the second in a three - part series that grew out of the now - terminated Federal Community Conservation Guidance Experience. The series aids States and cities planning analysis of the impacts of new commercial development on existing commercial area. Special attention is given to modernization of existing shopping centers. While the first report considers analysis procedures for determining impacts of new commercial developments on downtowns and older shopping centers, this report presents a methodology. Community impact analyses should be done if new development threatens to cause loss of sales, store closedowns, slowing of downtown revitalization, or difficulty in leasing already completed developments. The analysis will determine the probability and extent of feared impacts in several given situations. The microanalysis technique involves a series of steps. Data are gathered through interviews with officials, developers, business leaders, civic groups, merchants, and citizens. Site inspections are made. Socioeconomic and retail trends are identified in terms of the strengths and weaknesses of the existing centers, and retail sales impact analyses are made by estimating potential resident expenditures for each shopping area and comparing the base year estimates to sales projected with and without the proposed new mall. Fiscal, employment, and social impacts of the new mall must also be considered. The handbook briefly sketches some alternative, less exacting methodologies and outlines some methodological pitfalls. Tabular data are given. The appendix contains a glossary, a classification of retail stores, retail sales data for representative Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas, data sources, and representative private data firms.