Prediction of Pulse-Type Thunderstorm Gusts Using Vertically Integrated Liquid Water Content (VIL) and the Cloud Top Penetrative Downdraft Mechanism

摘要

Operational forecasting of maximum surface wind gusts generated by pulse-type thunderstorms has always been a challenge for meteorologists. Oftentimes it is known that the environment is conductive to the production of strong thunderstorms, but obviously not all of the thunderstorms that develop will generate severe wind gusts at the surface. Through the use of the Cloud Top Penetrative Downdraft Mechanism and the combination of Vertically Integrated Liquid water contents (VIL) and Radar Echo Heights (TOP) obtained from the RADAP II system, a technique has been proposed to assist operational meteorologists in forecasting the gust potential of air-mass (pulse-type) thunderstorms in near real-time situations.