Risk-based analysis for prioritization and processing in the Los Alamos National Laboratory 94-1 program

摘要

A previous report, Analysis of LANL Options for Processing Plutonium Legacy Materials, LA-UR-95-4301, summarized the development of a risk-based prioritization methodology for the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Plutonium Facility at Technical Area-55 (TA-55). The methodology described in that report was developed not only to assist processing personnel in prioritizing the remediation of legacy materials but also to evaluate the risk impacts of schedule modifications and changes. One key activity undertaken in the development of that methodology was that the risk assessments were based on statistically developed data from sampling containers in the vault and evaluating their condition; the data from the vault sampling programs were used as the basis for risk estimates. Also, the time-dependent behavior of the legacy materials was explicitly modeled and included in the risk analysis. The results indicated that significant reductions in program risk can be achieved by proper prioritization of the materials for processing.