Propagation of Uncertainties in the Response of a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) Primary Piping Model to Seismic Loads

摘要

The response surface method for investigating nuclear reactor system or components reaction to accidents is introduced. By assuming that the system simulated by computer codes behaves regularly, the transformation from code input to code output variables is approximated by a simple functional relationship (typically a polynomial) in a subspace which is contained in the set of input variables. The method was applied to the structural code STRUDL, used to compute the response of a PWR primary piping model subjected to seismic loads. The propagation of uncertainties of structural and seismic input variables was analyzed, and probability estimates of the piping maximum stress were computed. Results show that the piping is capable of resisting earthquakes and that peak wave acceleration is the dominant response factor.