Agristars: Foreign Commodity Production Forecasting. The 1980 US Corn and Soybeans Exploratory Experiment

摘要

The U.S. corn and soybeans exploratory experiment is described which consisted of evaluations of two technology components of a production forecasting system: classification procedures (crop labeling and proportion estimation at the level of a sampling unit) and sampling and aggregation procedures. The results from the labeling evaluations indicate that the corn and soybeans labeling procedure works very well in the U.S. corn belt with full season (after tasseling) LANDSAT data. The procedure should be readily adaptable to corn and soybeans labeling required for subsequent exploratory experiments or pilot tests. The machine classification procedures evaluated in this experiment were not effective in improving the proportion estimates. The corn proportions produced by the machine procedures had a large bias when the bias correction was not performed. This bias was caused by the manner in which the machine procedures handled spectrally impure pixels. The simulation test indicated that the weighted aggregation procedure performed quite well. Although further work can be done to improve both the simulation tests and the aggregation procedure, the results of this test show that the procedure should serve as a useful baseline procedure in future exploratory experiments and pilot tests.