Verification of Obstacle Accountability Areas Using a Simple Mathematical Model. Part 1. Description of General Model and Application for a Specific Case

摘要

A probabilistic model for the lateral displacement of an aircraft after the occurrence of an engine failure during take-off is described. A lateral boundary is calculated, for any point of time after the engine failure, such that the probability of being within the (two sided) lateral boundary meets a specified value. Probability distributions for the three model parameters are considered. The model is elaborated for a specific set of probability distributions. The resulting lateral boundaries are compared with the present ICAO annex 6 obstacle accountability area. The duration of the (deterministic) first phase, when in the range of 10 to 15 sec does not significantly influence the magnitude of the computed boundary. The magnitude of the angle between flight direction and runway center line and the aircraft speed, however, have a considerable effect on the magnitude of the boundary.