Development of Guidance Forecasts at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). Part 3: Probability of Thunderstorm Activity

摘要

An objective forecast scheme, based on the Model Output Statistics (MOS) approach for predicting the probability of thunderstorms in the Netherlands was developed. This scheme is MOS-equations which computes the forecast probabilities from the output of the numerical model of the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts. Lead times range from 48 to 144 hrs., mainly to support the notion that the public weather forecast is reliable.