GARP's (Global Atmospheric Research Program) Objectives in Weather Prediction. Expectations and Realizations

摘要

The evolution of the scientific foundations of GARP is reviewed. In 1960, a rudimentary less-than-global observing system provided marginally adequate initial conditions for balanced or geostrophic baroclinic models of a few levels designed to produce forecasts for a day or two. The physical limitations on predictability were poorly understood, data assimilation methods were primitive, and the means for improving numerical prediction models were elusive. The 1960's provided the opportunity to plan a comprehensive and coherent research program which would take advantage of new technologies, satellites and computers, for a systematic attack by the international community of scientists and governments. It was clear that process studies, such as in the boundary layer, in the tropics, and in the monsoon regions were a necessary part of the new strategy. It culminated in a year-long global experiment that provided the global data which would lead to improved models, a better understanding of key processes, extended predictive skill, and more effective observational systems.