Evaluation of Technical Models Used for Major-Accident Hazard Installations.Report to Commission of the European Communities Directorate General 12

摘要

Models are used in many ways by individuals and organizations within the EuropeanCommunity. Within the context of major technological hazards decisions of considerable importance are based wholly, or partly, on these models. The quality, that is the fitness-for-purpose, of these models will differ and there is obviously an interest in both the relative quality of one model against another and the absolute quality of any particular model. This leads to the evaluation of model quality and to methods by which model quality might be improved. It is noted that models are a principal method for the transfer of technology but also that the nature, role, and limitations of models is frequently misunderstood. There is a widespread demand for guidance on model quality and consequently on the development of evaluation techniques. The CEC is an appropriate body to have a role in the study of the quality and the management of quality of technical models. The evaluation of the quality of technical models entails: (1) an assurance of correct coding of algorithms is required and this is probably straightforward; (2) a statistical model validation is required and this entails comparison with experimental data sets (considerable care is required in performing such a validation, in particular in determination of an appropriate protocol to ensure unambiguous conclusions to be drawn from the validation); and (3) a model assessment including a scientific review and other less objective aspects is also required and should be given equal weight to a statistical model validation. Actions which may lead to an improvement in model quality are presented.