Low Simulated Radiation Limit for Runaway Greenhouse Climates.

摘要

Terrestrial planet atmospheres must be in long-term radiation balance, with solar radiation absorbed matched by thermal radiation emitted. For hot moist atmospheres, however, there is an upper limit on the thermal emission which is decoupled from the surface temperature. If net absorbed solar radiation exceeds this limit the planet will heat uncontrollably, the so-called runaway greenhouse". Here we show that a runaway greenhouse induced steam atmosphere may be a stable state for a planet with the same amount of incident solar radiation as Earth has today, contrary to previous results. We have calculated the clear-sky radiation limits at line-by-line spectral resolution for the first time. The thermal radiation limit is lower than previously reported (282 W/sq m rather than 310W/sq m) and much more solar radiation would be absorbed (294W/sq m rather than 222W/sq m). Avoiding a runaway greenhouse under the present solar constant requires that the atmosphere is subsaturated with water, and that cloud albedo forcing exceeds cloud greenhouse forcing. Greenhouse warming could in theory trigger a runaway greenhouse but palaeoclimate comparisons suggest that foreseeable increases in greenhouse gases will be insufficient to do this.