Verification and implementation of microburst day potential index (MDPI) and wind INDEX (WINDEX) forecasting tools at Cape Canaveral Air Station

摘要

This report details the research, development, utility, verification and transition on wet microburst forecasting and detection the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) did in support of ground and launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS). The unforecasted wind event on 16 August 1994 of 33.5 ms-1 (65 knots) at the Shuttle Landing Facility raised the issue of wet microburst detection and forecasting. The AMU researched and analyzed the downburst wind event and determined it was a wet microburst event. A program was developed for operational use on the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) weather system to analyze, compute and display Theta(epsilon) profiles, the microburst day potential index (MDPI), and wind index (WINDEX) maximum wind gust value. Key microburst nowcasting signatures using the WSR-88D data were highlighted. Verification of the data sets indicated that the MDPI has good potential in alerting the duty forecaster to the potential of wet microburst and the WINDEX values computed from the hourly surface data do have potential in showing a trend for the maximum gust potential. WINDEX should help in filling in the temporal hole between the MDPI on the last Cape Canaveral rawinsonde and the nowcasting radar data tools.