Dust Bowl migration as an analog for possible global warming-induced migration from Mexico

摘要

As a result of increases in CO(sub 2) and other radiatively important trace gases, scientists have predicted increases in mean worldwide temperatures of 2--5 degrees C over the next 50 to 100 years. Such temperature increases may result in climate modifications that would in turn be associated with increases in drought and desertification and could even change the patterns of the monsoons and tropical rains, which are important to agriculture throughout the world. They predicted that the rise in sea level caused by melting and thermal expansion of glaciers and polar icecaps could flood large population centers, destroying habitation and displacing populations. This will result in approximately 50 million ''environmental refugees'' worldwide, triple the number of today. The expected shifts in precipitation are also likely to result in (1) increased runoff contaminated with pesticides, salts, garbage, sewage, and eroded soil, and (2) drought also leading to increased soil erosion and salinization, as well as depletion of limited water resources. The total impact of global warming on agriculture and human habitation could considerably slow the economic development of some nations and would particularly affect agricultural production. Loss of homes, the inability to raise food, an increased prevalence of disease and worsened economic conditions may drive people to leave their homelands, seeking entry into countries which have more resources and greater resistance to the economic consequences of climatic change. This report looks at the possible environmental impacts and economic impacts of the greenhouse effect on Mexico while using the American Dust Bowl event as an analog.