National Economic Impact of Alaskan Natural Gas Transportation Systems. Working Group Report

摘要

The FPC Recommendation to the President compared the three alternative systems against two criteria, net national economic benefits and cost of service. All systems had substantial net benefits (from $5.8 billion to $8.2 billion) and a cost of service that was judged competitive with alternate fuels (a high of $2.26 per MCF). Alcan and Arctic had the highest net benefits and a lower cost of service than El Paso. This Task Force report examines the sensitivity of the FPC findings to different discount rates, cost overruns, and schedule delays and calculates new employment impacts. The new findings indicate that all of the systems still have positive net benefits ($3.3 billion to $4.8 billion) although reduced from the FPC levels and have increased costs of service (a high of $2.50 per MCF) which are still competitive with alternative fuels. Alcan has the highest benefits with El Paso second. Net benefits will be reduced to zero if any of the following occur: a construction delay greater than four years, construction cost increases of more than 100%, or a reduction in throughput from 2.4 BCFD to less than 1.2 BCFD. 22 tables. (ERA citation 04:049497)