Assessment of the Effect of Uncertainty on the Adequacy of the Electric-Utility Industry's Expansion Plans, 1983-1990

摘要

Historical planning methods may no longer deal adequately with the long planning horizons and the large number of uncertainties involved in today's electric-power-generation planning. This report's methodology incorporates the use of decision analysis to ensure an explicit consideration of uncertainty in demand growth. Optimal levels of planned capacity for electric-power-generation growth in the nine Reliability Council Regions of the United States are examined for the years 1983, 1988, and 1990. The optimal level is defined to be that level that minimizes the expected cost of power shortages and electricity production. In total, 17 capacity-expansion cases are simulated for each of seven demand-growth possibilities. Estimates for costs of shortages are combined with calculations of the production and incremental-capacity costs for alternative demand and expansion scenarios to obtain estimates for the level of capacity yielding minimum expected total costs. It was found that, for most regions of the country, the optimum plan calculated calls for a more-rapid expansion of generating facilities than that now contemplated. (ERA citation 05:033735)