Heuristic Analysis of Industry and Economic Effects of Restrictions on Generating Capacity. Final Report

摘要

A previous study, Industry and Economic Impacts of Restrictions on the Growth of Generating Capacity (EPRI Report, EA-1775), developed and applied an electricity-energy-economy modeling system to explore the effects of restrictions on nuclear and coal generating capacity and of varying capacity cost and fuel cost conditions. The present study develops a much more simple form (a heuristic model) of this detailed modeling system and applies this simple model to explain the previous results and to demonstrate the types and magnitudes of the causal relationships involved. As well as laying out some of the key relationships in the electricity-energy-economy modeling system, this simple model may be useful in permitting other analysts to perform their own studies, using new data and new information on possible restrictions, to estimate the effects caused by restrictions applying to the electric power industry. (ERA citation 07:061664)