关于中国海运产业的经济效应的分析：以产业关联分析为主

摘要

中国的国际贸易长期依赖于国际海运产业，因此本研究旨在利用2007年中国投入产出表研究海运产业对中国经济的影响。这里的经济影响包括前向关联效应、后向关联效应和产出诱发效应，本研究旨在初步研究和展现海运产业的重要地位。为此，本文利用国家统计局发布的中国投入产出结构数据，并设定一个海运产业的外生变量来具体研究其经济影响。本研究的结论能够帮助中国的决策者来认识海运产业的重要经济地位，并且同时为中国在全球经济中实现持续经济增长进行有效的政策设计提供帮助。

目录

TABLE OF CONTENTS

摘要

Abstract

1．INTRODUCTION

1．1 Research Background and objective

1．2 Research methodology

2．Theoretical Framework and Literature review

2．1 Literatures on Input-Output Analysis in Korea

2．2 Literatures on Input-Output Analysis in China

3．Status of Chinese economy and shipping industry

3．1 Economic size of China and its growth

3．2 Definition of shipping industry

3．3 Development status of world shipping industry

3．4 Development status of shipping industry in China

3．4．1 Economical environment and shipping demand

3．4．2 General trend of shipping industry in China

4．Summary of Input-Output analysis

4．1 Concept of Input-Output table

4．2 The basic model of Input-Output analysis

4．3 Types and features of Input-Output analysis

4．4 Advantages and disadvantages of Input-Output analysis

4．5 Economic analysis through Input-Output

4．5．1 Input coefficient

4．5．2 Production inducement coefficient

4．5．3 Index of the power of dispersion

4．5．4 Index of the sensitivity of dispersion

4．5．5 Intermediate input and added value

4．5．6 Intermediate demand and final demand

4．5．7 Forward and backward linkage effect

4．6 Exogenization of shipping industry

5．Chinese Input-Output Analysis

5．1 The Official Input-Output Tables by Statistical Bureaus

5．2 Framework and structure of the China I-O tables

5．3 Features of the China I-O tables

6．Analysis of economic effect of shipping industry in China

6．1 Reconstruction of China’s Input-Output Table

6．2 Industrial structure

6．3 Intermediate input

6．4 Production induction effects of China’s shipping industry

6．5 Industrial linkage effect of shipping industry

6．5．1 Forward linkage effects

6．5．2 Backward linkage effects

7．Conclusion and Limitation

References

Appendix

声明