Forecasting Electricity Demand with End-Use/Econometric Models

摘要

The Railbelt Electricity Demand (RED) Model, reported in this paper, is a simulation model designed to forecast annual electricity consumption for the residential, commercial-industrial-government and miscellaneous end-use sectors of Alaska's Railbelt region. The model also takes into account government intervention in the energy markets via conservation programs in Alaska and produces forecasts of system annual peak demand. The forecasts of consumption by sector and system peak demand are produced in five-year steps for three Railbelt load centers: Anchorage and vicinity; Fairbanks and vicinity; and Glennallen/Valdez. When run in Monte Carlo mode, the model produces a sample probability distribution of forecasts of electricity consumption by end-use sector and peak demand for each load center for each forecast year: 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010. This distribution of forecasts can be used for planning electric power generating capacity. The RED model is accordingly designed to be run in tandem with a separate electric capacity planning and dispatching model which produces forecasts of retail electricity rates. 3 figures, 2 tables. (ERA citation 08:046594)