Unbalanced Recovery in Energy Related Markets: Growth Retarding Implications for 1985

摘要

The paper explains the prediction that energy-intensive sectors of the economy (automobile and oil companies) will retard economic growth in 1985 to such a degree that recession is likely. The nature of the causes of this atypical growth slowdown are compared to the author's theory of normal causes of recessions and depressions. The predicted energy sector problems are related to the theory that a potentially depression-inducing several year transition among energy-producing and energy-consuming technologies was initiated after the 1978-1979 oil price shock. The problems of 1985 result from the inherent difficulty of achieving equilibrium in these energy-producing and consuming markets during the several year technological transition by producers. The recovery of 1981 is attributed to a boom in oil industry investment which may prove in 1985 to have been wasteful investment. Stagnation in the production of domestic automobiles, in combination with retrenchment in the oil and steel industries, is suggested to potentially be drastic enough to cause a recession, given the weakness of other sectors of the economy. While monetary ease is a correct response to the energy-related problems of 1985, its effect may be dampened by expanded consumption of imports. 31 refs., 3 tabs. (ERA citation 10:039338)