Assessing the risk of chronic lung injury attributable to long-term ozone exposure.

摘要

The research described here is part of a larger risk assessment project sponsored by the US Environmental Protection Agency. The purpose of this research is to characterize scientific judgment regarding the risk of chronic lung injury to children aged 8 through 16 and adult outdoor workers due to long-term ozone exposure in areas with patterns of exposure similar to those found in southern California and the Northeast. The qualitative and quantitative judgments resulting from the work will not be used in the ongoing review of the ozone primary ambient air quality standard. They will instead be used to inform policymakers and the public about the possible health implications of long-term exposure to ozone. Our measure of injury is the incidence of mild or moderate lesions in the centriacinar region of the lung. The probabilities over population response rates were elicited from six health experts actively researching ozone-induced lung injury. We describe our approach and present the results in the form of judgmental probability distributions and associated qualitative comments over the population response rates for formation of lesions induced by exposure to ozone. 19 refs., 15 figs., 1 tab.