European Security & Russia: A Workshop at CNAC, 13 April 2001.

摘要

The CNA Corporation has had a program of seminars with its Russian counterparts since 1991. We have discussed a range of issues, from strategic nuclear matters to naval cooperation. For the seminar we are planning in Russia in the summer or fall of 2001, one of the prime agenda items will be the long- term future of the relation of Russia to European security (assuming the United States has a long-term future relation in Europe as well). As part of our preparations for the seminar in Russia, we organized a workshop to discuss the issues of Russia and European security. It was held at CNA on Friday, 13 April. The format of the workshop involved five speakers, speaking for 10- 15 minutes each, each addressing one of five scenarios described below, followed by discussion with the audience. The scenarios were chosen to raise a full range of issues. The scenarios included (1) NATO expansion to Russia's borders, (2) bringing Russia into NATO, (3) Russia and Europe gradually converging in matters of security, ( 4) Europe creates a security infrastructure separate from US and from Russia, and (5) drift in European security arrangements. The speakers laid out these scenarios in detail. But the detail obscured two major conclusions that could be drawn from the whole workshop: (1) when all is said and done, it is not clear what European security is; and (2) the Russians were absent. Under these conditions, we can conclude that there is likely to be much drift in European security arrangements (scenario (5) ).