National Missile Defense - 21st Century Long Wall

摘要

The paper puts forth the thesis that the security challenges of the twenty-first century require the addition of National Missile Defense (NMD) to U.S. nuclear deterrence strategy. It discusses this issue with the help of an historical analogy that compares the U.S. decision to build NMD to the Athenian decision in 479 BC to build its Long Walls linking Athens and its major seaport. First, the paper defines the three elements of U.S. nuclear deterrence posture: retaliation, defense, and dissuasion. Then, the paper establishes the current state of those three elements. The elements of strategic deterrence are assessed to determine their suitability to deter twenty-first century threats. To do this, current threats are examined and compared to the deterrent elements. The assessment reveals that the deterrence elements cannot meet the new security challenges, and recommends a re-balancing of the elements. Adjusting this balance will incur risks, and those risks are explored. The discussion of risks focuses on both the policy and technical risks of the suggested changes. By the end of this paper it will hopefully be clear that U.S. nuclear deterrence policy should be modified with the addition of an active defense component to meet twenty-first century security challenges.