Concept Development for Future Domains: A New Method of Knowledge Elicitation

摘要

During the development of operational concepts for the Future Combat System of Systems' Unit of Employment and Unit of Action it became clear that the Army needed a more effective and efficient method for envisioning the future. A review of existing knowledge elicitation techniques indicated that current methods are not easily applied to the development of future concepts. They do not adequately address the cognitive impact new concepts and technology have on Soldiers. In addition, existing methods do not thoroughly examine the potential unforeseen impacts the introduction of the new technology will have. The inherent difficulty in envisioning new concepts requires a more systematic approach to elicit knowledge from domain experts. This report reviews existing methods and describes a new method of knowledge elicitation to more effectively support the development of future concepts, evaluate the impact of new technology, and solve difficult problems where information and expertise is dispersed among many individuals.