Suitability of NetLogo for the Modeling of Civilian Assistance and Guerrilla Warfare

摘要

This report presents a pilot study of the suitability of NetLogo, an agent-based software tool, in modelling guerilla warfare. In this study, a local civilian populace reports observed insurgent activity to peacekeepers with varying levels of enthusiasm depending on the reputation of the peacekeepers with those local populaces. A simulation model is developed in NetLogo to assess the suitability of an agent-based approach for studying the complex interactions between the civilian populace, peacekeepers and insurgents. Differences in the simulation outputs, contrasting the benefits of civilian assistance in peacekeeping operations, are tested for statistical significance using a number of Monte Carlo simulations. NetLogo is shown to be capable of modelling a subset of the physical, social and behavioural interactions in guerilla warfare and in that capacity is useful for developing conceptual models and providing insights into the nature of guerilla warfare in low-fidelity preliminary studies.