Navigating the Information Revolution: Choices for Laggard Countries; Doctoral thesis

摘要

The rapid diffusion of information and communication technologies (ICTs) during the last two decades has had a profound impact on all spheres of human endeavors, changes that are collectively referred to as the Information Revolution (IR). But the revolution has been uneven, with some countries being far ahead and others far behind in IR, resulting in the so called digital divide. Laggard countries need means to move ahead if they are to access the benefits that IR offers and not suffer the consequences of being left out. This study identifies stages of IR, classifies countries according to their various stages, and using country-level data, identifies the drivers that are important across stages of IR. This is done at two levels: (1) drivers of diffusion of IR artifacts (short term dynamics) and drivers of the broader IR concept (long term dynamics). This study finds that at lower stages, the factors that drive the information revolution tend to be those that have to do with the development of markets. In the intermediate stages, demand factors are the key drivers. At higher stages, supply factors are the key drivers of IR. Current use level or epidemic effects are the key drivers of the short term diffusion of ICT artifacts. The overriding drivers at all stages seem to be levels of human capital, quality of governance and the extent of urbanization. This analysis unifies long term adoption drivers with short term diffusion drivers to develop a road map that points the way for laggard countries as they ride the information revolution.