Significance of Consequence Assessment Applied to the Risk-Based Approach of Homeland Security.

摘要

The purpose of this thesis is to challenge the risk-based approach to homeland security and elevate the significance of consequence during the Homeland Security risk assessment process. The risk-based approach is based on three criteria: (1) threat assessment, (2) vulnerability of a target, and (3) consequence of a disaster or terrorist attack. Currently, there is heightened priority and focus given to threat and vulnerability when assessing and interpreting risk. Consequence, as identified in the same matrix, is not considered equally and is underrepresented in the risk analysis process. The consequence variable must be afforded an equal or greater value than threat and vulnerability. In doing so, local homeland security policies can be focused towards consequence mitigation when planning and determining how to reduce risk within a designated jurisdiction. Today's emergency preparedness risk environment has become increasingly more complex, especially at the local level. The management of that risk is a fundamental requirement of local government, which is expected to identify and anticipate areas of vulnerability and set in place a cohesive strategy across all disciplines to mitigate, reduce, and eliminate risks. The problem with this expectation is that the same federal guidance documents are being used at the federal, state, and local levels as officials embark on similar, but very different, homeland security missions. A review of these documents will reveal a deliberate bias toward short-term objectives that undermine a local government's long-term commitment to the people it serves. Local agencies must be able to respond to a threatening incident in a way that minimizes the number of casualties, and maintains services until the situation returns to normal.