Holistic Integrative Analysis of International Change: A Commentary on Teaching Emergent Futures (Proteus Monograph Series. Volume 1, Issue 3); Monograph

摘要

To accomplish -- properly, correctly, and regularly -- an holistically integrative assessment of international change dynamics, and forecasting therewith emerging international change (futures), is to demonstrate a taught skill within a found talent. Such a talent cannot be downloaded, reverse engineered, standardized, nor is it the province of the many. One must do the considerable prefatory work, constantly maintain and update one's ability, and understand that one's work must be properly grounded across many disciplines. Many people can be taught basics, fewer can achieve competence in integrating basics from many disciplines, and fewer still attain mastery. Mastery at an advanced dynamic level is yet more rare. This is the reason for highlighting that a competent emerging international future forecaster is a found talent, but one that we can to some degree train and create. Teaching this necessarily holistic orientation to emerging international futures forecasting is significantly at odds with many current pedagogic and analytic practices. In any event, the relative lack of holistic orientation and of the ability to reason forward in an integrated and holistic manner has proved costly in both lives and treasure for the United States of America. It is this context of misalignment between need and necessity that provides justification for a commentary on the more proper teaching of emergent international futures analysis.