Successful Deterrence Against a Coercive Attempt by China to Reunify Taiwan must be Defeated in Phases Zero and One; Research paper

摘要

The maturation of China's access denial capabilities emphasizes the importance of time as a critical factor for U.S. and Taiwanese forces to resist offensive strike operations if the People's Republic of China (PRC) uses coercive force to reunify Taiwan. This reality is exaggerated by the immutable, irreducible factor of space, which greatly favors China in any potential conflict between the United States and China. This will force the combatant commander to create more combat time by increasing Taiwan's ability and will to withstand force during phases zero and one, and by allocating forces required to counter missile and submarine warfare threats posed by the PRC. This will allow the United States to apply asymmetric force in a deliberate rather than reactionary manner, decreasing the risk of escalation with a nuclear-armed adversary, and improving the odds of resolving the conflict successfully. Such a strategy will enhance deterrence and maintain the status quo in accordance with U.S. policy.