Graying Panda Shrinking Dragon. The Impact of Chinese Demographic Changes on Northeast Asian Security

摘要

Since 1980, China's 'one child' policy has successfully slowed its population growth and facilitated stable economic growth. By curtailing over 250 million births since its inception, however, the one child policy also induced significant long-term consequences. According to China's National Committee of Population and Planned Birth, China faces three major demographic events during the next 30 years: a peak of workers entering the labor market, a reversal of population growth, and a rapid increase in the age of the Chinese population. Furthermore, China's one child policy also created a significant and growing gender imbalance. These demographic changes promise to undermine China's longterm stability by inducing labor shortages, slowing economic growth, and increasing pressure for internal migration and immigration. Conversely, continued U.S. demographic strength and increased Chinese risk aversion will constrain China's belligerence and stabilize its demographic transformation. Together, these forces foretell an aging, constrained, and less belligerent nation after the mid-2030s. United Nations (UN) population forecasters expect China's population to grow only marginally until 2030, plateau at 1.46 billion until 2035, and then fall slightly to 1.41 billion by 2050. Perhaps more significant than population growth reversal will be rapid aging, as the median age will likely increase from 30 to 41 by 2030, and to 45 by 2050. During this period, seniors will represent the most rapidly growing demographic group, as the proportion over age 60 triples from 10.9 percent to 35.8 percent by 2050, while the over-80 population quadruples from 1.8 percent to 6.8 percent.