Denting the Hub, or Strengthening the Spokes. A Neoclassical Realism Analysis of New Security Trends in the Pacific

摘要

In March 2007, Japan and Australia signed a Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation (JADSC)-Japan's first such agreement with any country other than the United States since World War II (WWII). The agreement pledges cooperation on counter-terrorism, maritime security, peacekeeping operations, and disaster relief. Prevailing international relations theories fail to adequately explain the logic for such a Japan-Australia security agreement. They also do not explain its acceptance by the United States or negative reactions toward it by China. Neoclassical Realism improves analysis by traditional system-level or unit-level theories without invalidating them. It does so by recognizing that certain domestic traits serve as the causal link between the international system and foreign policy decisions. These domestic traits function as intervening variables. Existing models of Neoclassical Realism, however, leave analysts to choose intervening traits in an ad hoc manner. This limits the theory's usefulness. The model proposed in this thesis resolves these limitations by identifying broadly applicable intervening variables. It does so by categorizing possible intervening variables according to their effect on decision-making. This adaptation allows Neoclassical Realism to be applied in a more nuanced and robust manner to a variety of policy cases. Analysis by Neoclassical Realism and the intervening variable model permit an evaluation of the JADSC that explains its acceptance by the United States and its appropriateness within the existing balance of power in the region. It also shows that the JADSC adds to-rather than detracts from-the US-centric security arrangement of bilateral 'hub-and-spoke' agreements established at the end of WWII.