State of Play in Russia's Near Abroad

摘要

Right now, Russia is engaged in a grand face-saving gesture: having lost the Cold War in so dramatic a fashion, it is swapping dreams of global domination for dreams of Eurasian suzerainty. Key to this aspiration is rigorous control over the activities, alliances, internal affairs, and attitudes of the (generally former Soviet) states on its periphery, and a new entrant: the Arctic Ocean. With World War II now woven into their being, Russians want to be able to defeat an invader on foreign (rather than Russian) territory, in buffer states such as Mongolia and the Muslim/Slavic 'near abroad'-thus, their overwhelming desire to coopt these lands and create a sort of peripheral suzerainty where all others must fear to tread. Attempts to control the next ring of former Warsaw Pact allies have been abysmal, but that has not stopped Russia from trying; witness, for instance, the political capital expended to prevent Kosovo's independence or to torpedo the proposed U.S. antiballistic missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic. Highly reminiscent of America's own Monroe Doctrine, Moscow is asserting a privileged sphere of influence and expecting the world to concur without objection. It is increasingly laying down markers and drawing red lines in the sand so border states are constantly aware they can only go so far before displeasing their neighbor.