Modeling Stakeholder Decision Logic: A Case Study of Lebanese Hezbollah

摘要

This thesis develops a methodology to analyze stakeholder decision logic in dynamic, multi-agent political systems. The focus of the research is Lebanese Hezbollah decision making in a political system that includes Iran, Syria, Israel, and the United States. A thorough historical review of the Middle East provides the foundation for accurate descriptions of each stakeholder's interests and feasible actions. Additionally, the historical review provides the basis for specifying model relationships and initial, notional probability data to inform the model. A conceptual model is then developed to represent the system using influence diagrams. This conceptual model is adapted to enable implementation of two models, one for each research question posed by the Unified Combatant Command that prompted this research effort. The two research questions are as follows: (1) How would Lebanese Hezbollah respond to an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities, and (2) Under what conditions would Lebanese Hezbollah retaliate for the death of Imad Mughniyah. To answer these questions and solve the models, a Java application is developed and described in detail. The application provides users with the ability to manipulate the model and its inputs to suit their analytical needs and to evaluate the efficacy of the model's variables. A user interface and convenient model diagnostics together provide the Unified Combatant Command with the desired decision support. Finally, several important insights are presented relating to modeling methodology and to the specific decision making logic of Hezbollah and other stakeholders in this system.