A SYSTEMATIC APPROACH TO LOCAL OBJECTIVE FORECAST STUDIES,

摘要

Problems in the design,preparation,and use of local objective forecasting studies were evaluated while specific local objective forecasting studies were being made. As a result, a systematic procedure that may be used as a guide in designing and preparing local objective forecasting studies was developed and tested in a number of seminar-workshop groups. The systematic procedure is outlined and discussed with illustrations from several local objective forecasting studies. The procedure consists of defining the local forecasting problem in terms consistent with observing and forecasting capabilities,resolving the variability of the forecast element into its cyclic (seasonal and diurnal) and 'synoptic'components,and finally, reassembling the components into a forecast scheme that allows the forecaster to exercise his training as a meteorologist. (Author)