Prediction Models for Fire Spread Following Nuclear Attacks

摘要

In Part I a semiempirical approach is used to predict fire spread beyond the area directly ignited by thermal radiation from nuclear weapons. Mathematical models, both stochastic and deterministic, describe the progress of fires in two-dimensional or one-dimensional space. Application of each model to appropriate cases is discussed. Empirical data needed for evaluation of parameters are specified and methods for acquiring these data suggested. Observed data, accumulated over many years in records of past fires, have proved valuable in determining some of the parameters. The remaining parameters require further observed data. At present approximate prediction can be made by use of a specially designed version. Part II presents the results of a statistical study on observed rate of spread data and discusses a number of specific problems that must be worked out before the method can be used for assessing the fire damage from nuclear attacks. (Author)