Development and Application of a Subjective Value Approach to Information Utility

摘要

This report summarizes the work on a performance prediction model to assess decision making adequacy of military commanders, with particular emphasis on the development of latest phase of the work; an application of the information value model to the airborne ASW situation. The application of the model was effected by soliciting judgments from experienced TACCOs (Tactical Coordinators) selected from operational airborne ASW squadrons in the Atlantic Fleet. Problems were run as realistic exercises in the simulator at the ASW Tactical Training School, Norfolk, Virginia, employing as subjects the TACCOs who had made the original judgments. Performance was found to vary as function of information value, as predicted, and as a function of elapsed time. An additional analysis indicated that the linear model accounted for approximately 90 percent of the observed variability of performance. In short, the attempted demonstration of the efficacy of the information value model in a limited real world situation was highly successful. (Author)