Typhoon and Tropical Storm Intensity Forecasts for 24, 48and 72Hours using Statistical Regression Equations,

摘要

A ten-year (1960-1969) sample of observations for western North Pacific tropical cyclones over the open ocean was used to derive statistical regression equations to forecast the maximum wind speed for 24-, 48-,and 72-hr periods. An independent sample of tropical cyclones (July,August and September of 1955-59) was used to test the derived regression equations. Verification was in terms of the relative forecast error according to the acceptability criteria set by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center,Guam. The storms were stratified by latitude bands,months and maximum intensity. Both five-predictor and ten-predictor equations were tested. (Modified author abstract)