General Aviation Dynamics. An Extension of the Cost Impact Study to Include Dynamic Interactions in the Forecasting of General Aviation Activity. Volume II. Research Methodology.

摘要

This report is the result of a series of research programs dealing with the cost impact effects on general aviation conducted by Battelle Memorial Institute - Columbus Laboratories. Past studies were aimed at developing a consistent data base and methodology for determining the influence of cost changes on both numbers of active aircraft and annual hours flown. During these studies, it became apparent that the complex nature of the general aviation system was not being adequately represented with a set of independent, log-linear regression equations. A method is needed which, (1) focuses on general aviation activity at the lowest possible level; that is, by individual user category/aircraft type subsegments; (2) recognizes the important causal interactions between pilots, aircraft, and annual hours flown; (3) Has the ability to assess various policy alternatives quickly; and (4) Can be easily modified as future forecasting requirements are identified. This report presents the results of a model development effort designed to satisfy the above objectives. Throughout the report, discussion of the model is couched in the terminology of system dynamics.