A Survey of Long-Range Forecasting Models and Data Resources: A Method for Their Application at the Department of Defense

摘要

This Technical Report presents the results of a review of forecasting methods, computer programs, environmental indicators, and data sources of potential use in the preparation of long-range (10 to 20 years) planning documents at the Department of Defense. This report recommends that DoD long-rang planning be conducted on a general probabilistic basis, identifying the factors of national power, forecasting their most likely status on a national and regional basis, and assesing the political implications of these future power relationships accordingly. It suggests Ray Cline's Percieved Power equation as the vehicle for such an approach and recommends a 'family' of forecasting models using Mesarovic's APT interactive software to provide needed inputs to the equation. It identifies 18 forecasting models and 59 data resources as meriting further investigation for thier potential use in such an effort.