Naval Officer Retention as a Function of Commission Source and First and Second Duty Assignments: An Evaluation of Three Estimation Models

摘要

The overall objectives of the subproject are to develop career paths that enable junior officers to make long-term career plans and to assist the Navy in developing assignment strategies that increase career retention of quality Naval officers. The study was undertaken to identify patterns in the duty assignment system that are associated with retention. If patterns are identified that are controllable through the assignment system alternative strategies that increase retention may be developed. Configural (or pattern) analysis models were evaluated for accuracy and stability in providing estimates of retention proportions for a source-to-assignment matrix with several hundred possible assignment patterns. The major finding was that one of the SPA models provided more stable data than did the calculations based on the actual outcomes. This finding suggests that stable estimates of personnel retention proportions are possible for use with a source-to-assignment matrix in algorithms for optimizing the assignment of personnel.