A Heuristic Model for Evaluating Sensitivity to Labor and Capital Inputs, Allocations, and Growth Rates in a Four-Sector Soviet Economy Following a Nuclear Attack

摘要

This research was conducted to investigate the sensitivity of economic growth in the USSR to key parameters in the sectoral production functions. A simulation of the Soviet education system is linked to a four-sector growth model of the Soviet Union. School graduates enter the labor force by planned allocation to each sector. Capital requirements are determined for each sector and iterative procedure is used to determine aggregate GNP. Results of the sensitivity analysis show a decisive link between defense spending and growth as well as prediction of growth rates following a nuclear war. Additionally, sensitivity to capital growth and distribution is demonstrated. (Author)