Evaluation of Marine Fog Forecast Concepts and a Preliminary Design for a Marine Obscuration Forecast System.

摘要

Calspan's studies produced phenomenological descriptions of at least five new fog types, provided realistic verification on which to base new numerical modeling techniques, and developed synoptic and statistical relationships which could be used in operational forecasting. Under the current contract, Calspan conducted an objective evaluation of these predictive approaches, along with a select group of numerical models, by testing against data sets derived from at-sea observational studies. The results of this evaluation demonstrated that, with high-quality data, certain models can provide operationally useful forecasts for marine obscuration. It is also concluded that new knowledge of the physics of marine fog occurrence can help optimize the application of various forecast techniques and also serve as a back-up forecast tool. As a chief objective of this investigation, we outlined a preliminary version of an obscuration forecast system which, when fully developed, would incorporate this new knowledge and delineate the application of specific numeric and/or synoptic and statistical approaches; i.e., the system would specify a forecast tool tailored to the attendant meteorological scenario and functional within operational constraints. This report summarizes the research effort and results which led to the conceptual design of this forecast system.