Methodology for Determining the Intent of a Limited Nuclear Attack

摘要

The purpose of this study was to develop a methodology for determining the intent of a limited nuclear attack. An investigation of possible methodologies for determining intent lead to research in Bayesian analysis. It was thought that the answer to intent could be found by taking prior beliefs of the decision maker and then using Bayes Theorem to update those beliefs with ground-bases radar information obtained over time. Unfortunately the use of Bayesian analysis as proposed here in this research did not prove to be robust when the radar information is inaccurate. The reason for the inability of the proposed methodology to perform under the inaccurate radar parameters is that ignores too many of the complicating issues in determining intent.