Comparative Study of Techniques for Forecasting Monthly Aircraft Sortie Rates in the Tactical Air Command

摘要

The research compared the results of four time series forecasting techniques to the forecasting methodology used at wings in the Tactical Air Command (TAC) for determining the monthly aircraft sortie schedule. The number of aircraft scheduled has an effect on the work force throughout the maintenance complex. A more accurate forecasted monthly sortie schedule results in the effective use of the wing's aircraft and personnel. To accomplish the comparison, five years of historical aircraft sortie data for five different wings were obtained from Headquarters Tactical Air Command. Four of the years were used with the four time series techniques to forecast the fifth year. The forecasts were then compared to the actual data of the fifth year to determine which technique yielded the best results. The results of the research indicated that 86% of the time series techniques out performed the current forecasting methodology used in TAC. The best performance of the time series techniques was the modified moving average which, for one wing, was 81% more accurate. Keywords: Theses, Forecasting, Scheduling, Planning, Sortie rates. (jes)