Analysis of Forecasting Methodologies for the U.S. Army Accident Data.

摘要

One of the tasks of the U.S. Army Safety Center (USASC) is to prepare monthly forecasts for Army accident data and to disseminate the analyses of the forecasts to the various commands in the form of an informative and easily read report. In order to understand the magnitude of this task, one needs to look at not only the various time series involved in the preparation of the monthly forecasts but also at the nature of the data available to USASC personnel. The time series which must be forecasted are divided according to (1) the 18 major Army commands (MACOMs) (2) the individual installations which are under the supervision of each MACOM, and (3) the type of accident. The accidents are classified into ten types: (1) Army motor vehicle, (2) Army combat vehicle, (3) personally owned vehicle, (4) marine, (5) other army vehicle, (6) fire, (7) explosive, (8) personal injury, (9) property damage, and (10) aviation.