Strategic Forum. Number 274. January 2012. Raising Our Sights: Russian- American Strategic Restraint in an Age of Vulnerability.

摘要

The United States and Russia have sought to reduce the danger of nuclear war by limiting offensive strategic capabilities through negotiated agreements, relying on mutual deterrence based on reciprocal threats and the corresponding fear of retaliation. Although nuclear arsenals have been pared, this is fundamentally the same way the United States and Soviet Union sought to reduce the danger of nuclear war during the Cold War, when both were impelled to do so because they were adversaries and able to do so despite being adversaries. It is ironic not to say unimaginative that although the two are no longer adversaries, they stick to a path chosen when they were. This current approach is inadequate given new strategic vulnerabilities brought on by technological change. Both the opportunity and the need now exist for a different, more ambitious approach to avoiding strategic conflict one designed for new possibilities as well as new vulnerabilities. The United States and Russia can and should raise their sights from linear numerical progress to qualitative transformation of their strategic relationship. Accordingly, while not discarding mutual deterrence or nuclear arms control, this paper calls for three basic changes in approach: The scope of the effort to prevent strategic conflict should be widened to include two additional domains: space and cyberspace. The aim of the effort should shift from controlling capabilities to eliminating threats and dangers of those capabilities being used. The effort s political premise should be that because both countries now truly seek a nonadversarial relationship, each can agree not to be the first to attack the other or its allies in any of these strategic domains.