Thinking About Opponent Behavior in Crisis and Conflict: A Generic Model forAnalysis and Group Discussion

摘要

This paper combines insights from strategic analysis, cognitive psychology,gaming, and artificial intelligence modeling to describe a theory and concrete methodology for thinking about the likely and possible reasoning of opponents before or during crisis and conflict. The methodology is intended for use in analysis and defense planning, especially planning for possible limited contingencies. We anticipate that the methodology can be employed in group discussions with policymakers and senior officers, not merely at the analyst-to-analyst level. It is part of a study of peacetime contingency planning and crisis decisionmaking, the objectives of which are (a) to develop a conceptual approach for thinking about the likely and possible reasoning of opponents before or during crisis and conflict, (b) to evaluate the approach against historical cases (including the recent crisis in Iraq), and (c) to refine techniques for applying the approach in both analysis and group discussions. Here we are concerned primarily with (a) and (c).