公共危机状态下群体抢购行为的演化机理研究——基于日本核危机中我国食盐抢购事件的案例分析

摘要

A dynamic theory model of panic buying evolution has been built in this paper by referring to the formula of group dynamics, B=f （P, E）, and incorporating a mediator variable-the judgment for psychologically expected value of panic buying. Based on case study of the salt panic buying in China during the Japan nuclear crisis, this paper analyzed the evolution mechanism of mass panic buying under the public crisis and arrived at some conclusion： the individual＇s taking part in panic buying was driven by their inherent need; in the process of judgment, the individual was not only concerned about the change in the cost of panic buying, but also the authenticity ex- pectations of the incentive information and the adequacy expectations of the resources; the active force of the group＇s internal and external environmental factors affected individual＇s decisionmaking through affecting its value judgment of psychological expectations.%本文借鉴群体行为动力学的公式B=f（P，E），并纳入中介变量——抢购心理预期价值判断，构建了抢购行为演化动力理论模型。结合日本核危机中我国食盐抢购案例，对公共危机状态下抢购行为的演化机理进行了分析。结果表明：个体参与抢购受其内在需要驱动；个体在对抢购心理预期价值进行判断时不仅关注抢购的成本变化，还会关注诱因信息的真实性预期以及购买时资源的充足性预期；抢购群体内在需要和外在环境因素的作用力，是通过影响抢购个体的心理预期价值判断，进而影响其行为决策的。