Decision Under Conflict: Resolution and Confidence in Judgment and Choice

摘要

The major themes of the research supported under this grant are the discrepancybetween normative and descriptive theory and the constructive nature of decision and judgement. In contrast to the classical theory that treats preferences as given and describes choice as a maximization process, the present approach holds that preferences and judgements are often constructed in the elicitation process. Furthermore, these constructions are contingent on the framing of the problem, the method of elicitation, and the context of choice. During the last three years, we have made considerable progress towards the development of a constructive analysis of choice, documented in the enclosed articles. The present report reviews the major themes: (1) Resolving Conflict; (2) Reference-dependent Theory; (3) The Aggregate/Individual Discrepancy; (4) Elicitation Effects and the Compatibility Principle; (5) Preference and Belief; and (6) Evidence and Confidence. These topics are discussed in turn.